Penn State vs Indiana Predictions, Picks, and Odds - Nittany Lions, Baldwin Bow Out? (2024)

The Indiana Hoosiers were defeated by Penn State in each of their two regular season meetings, but our college basketball betting picks believe Ace Baldwin and the Nittany Lions are due for some head-to-head regression.

Both the Indiana Hoosiers and the Penn State Nittany Lions righted their seasons just in time to keep their March Madness odds hopes alive. The Hoosiers, in particular, could force their way onto the proverbial bubble with a run in Minneapolis this weekend in the Big Ten Tournament bracket.

They are on the preferable side of the bracket to make that happen, but first they need to find a way to upset the Nittany Lions. A one-score favorite in the conference tournament oddstonight, Penn State has walloped Indiana twice this season.

The Hoosiers moneyline may not be lofty tonight, but it still points us in the right direction in our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview Penn State vs. Indiana on Thursday, March 14.

Penn State vs Indiana best odds

Penn State vs Indiana picks and predictions

Backing the Indiana Hoosiers program because of its offense defies some comprehension. It ranked No. 11 in the Big Ten in efficiency, per KenPom, an offense undone in 2024 by a refusal to take shots from deep. No one in the conference attempted 3-pointers less often than the Hoosiers.

Tonight that may be good news, since the Penn State Nittany Lions held conference opponents to just 31.9% from beyond the arc. Despite that stingy perimeter defense, the Nittany Lions ranked No. 10 in defensive efficiency in the Big Ten. Why? They do not defend well on the inside.

Opponents shot 54.9% inside the arc against Penn State, scoring the bulk of their points there. And that’s the great news for Indiana.

Part of why the Hoosiers do not like to shoot the three is because they are so good at shooting the two. Their 53.3% mark from inside the arc led the Big Ten, as did scoring 60.9% of their points on 2-point field goals.

To sum all that up: Penn State’s greatest defensive weakness is the strength on which Indiana built its offense.

How’d the Hoosiers then lose to the Lions twice this season? Well, Penn State shot 12 of 22 from deep in their first meeting and 9 of 21 in their second. Hitting 48.3% of their looks from beyond the arc was quite a bit beyond the Lions’ usual, going 33.4% in 18 other Big Ten games this regular season.

Even Penn State’s hot shooting on Wednesday night to beat Michigan — 7 of 17 from deep for 41.2% — trailed those showings against the Hoosiers.

Hitting those shots in those two particular games was even more unexpected since Indiana held all other opponents to 30.9% from deep in Big Ten play.

Logically, the Nittany Lions shooting should regress to the mean against the Hoosiers tonight, while Indiana’s close-range approach should remain a successful enterprise. Getting the Hoosiers at +105 on the moneyline may not seem glamorous, but those differing offensive expectations make it the clear value.

My best bet: Indiana moneyline (+105 at DraftKings)

Penn State vs Indiana same-game parlay

There is a risk here in playing this same-game parlay at Caesars. FanDuel offers the game total at 149.5, but that payout is only +390. Increasing our payout by 10.3% justifies the risk of abandoning that point in the total.

Betting the Under comes from expecting Indiana to figure out Penn State’s shooting. Well, as much the Hoosiers figuring it out, the Nittany Lions should simply regress to the mean. And anytime a bet is based on fewer 3s and more 2s, the Under makes sense.

No one available for Penn State relies on the three as much as Ace Baldwin does, shooting 34.5% from deep and making 1.5 per game. Doubting the Nittany Lions from the arc can also mean doubting Baldwin, and doing so will endanger his overall scoring.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Penn State vs Indiana spread and Over/Under analysis

The Hoosiers opened as 1.5-point underdogs early Thursday morning, with some sportsbooks offering +2 for stretches of the A.M. Some of that may have tied to some faith in the Nittany Lions for winning 66-57 against Michigan on Wednesday. Much of it was probably tied to them going 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games.

But Indiana has gone 4-0 both straight-up and ATS in its last four following the latest stumble vs. Penn State.

The total opened at 151 and began ticking down while the East Coast had its first cup of coffee, reaching 149 at most books before the workday officially began.

Penn State vs Indiana betting trend to know

Penn State is 1-4 SU as a one-score favorite this season. Find morecollege basketball betting trends for Penn State vs. Indiana.

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